PANIC vs. PANDEMIC: DOING THE HARD MATH

We all know that hard decisions require hard trade-offs. Believe it or not, I take Trump at his word that he chose to downplay the deadly danger of the coronavirus to the American people because he didn't want to create "a panic" as he told Bob Woodward in taped interviews for Woodward's new book "Rage." So, what were those trade-offs?

As a philosopher, I might frame the question along these lines: What was the utilitarian calculation that led him to call the virus a Democratic hoax, to claim it was no worse than the flu, to encourage his followers to flout and then protest mask ordinances and business closures, to claim over and over again that the virus would simply disappear on its own as if by magic, to blame the states's governors (who did not have the same information he bragged to Woodward he had) for their failure to handle the pandemic?

Or to put it another way: What countervailing value compelled this administration to try to wait out the ravages of this pandemic in anticipation of a vaccine (and gaslight the American public about when it will be widely available)?

Again: Why, to this day, is there still no national policy to deal with the inevitable second wave that will strike here before a vaccine is widely available?

These are the sorts of hard questions a competent leader and administration is required to make in deciding policy questions. I get it.

So, what was the trade-off that fueled Trump and his administration's decision to downplay the deadly seriousness of the virus to the American public? What was the specific panic they wanted to avoid?

Trump's economic advisors Peter Navarro and Larry Kudlow and Steven Mnuchin, among others, made it abundantly clear that the administration's main concern was stock market values. The Trump administration's principal measure of its economic success has been the rising stock market. Trump himself boasted the other day about the record highs in the Dow Jones Industrial Average as evidence of what a good job he is doing. Understandably, they did not want to see a stock market panic a la 2008.

So, let's look at the numbers on both sides of the trade-off equation. Currently, the U.S. has roughly a quarter of the world's deaths (~195,000) even though we only make up about 4% of the world's population. Worldwide deaths stand at ~905,000. So, doing back-of-the-envelope math, if Trump had acted responsibly and truthfully, not downplayed the severity of the threat, and the U.S. had performed on par with the averages of other countries in the world (not better, just average), we should be at ~36,000 deaths (4% of 905,000). That's ~160,000 additional deaths due to Trump's neglect and public lies about the deadly severity and spread of the virus.

So the question we need to ask is how many points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were salvaged by this policy? And how many lives were sacrificed in trade-off for each point on the Dow?

Unfortunately, I can't do the second part of the calculation because I don't have access to the numbers Navarro, Kudlow, Mnuchin, Trump, Pence, et al., had. I don't know what their projections of a market "panic" looked like. How many points did they believe it would fall if Trump did not downplay the threat of the pandemic? So, as I write this, I cannot tell you how many American lives per Dow point they gamed out in their scenarios. But I do believe this is the question that needs to be asked. FOIA, e.g., anyone?

One last point. If they did not make the good faith effort to do these utilitarian calculations in determining their policy response to the deadly spread of the virus, then frankly they did not do their job. They are incompetent, and their response has been in bad faith. The total good from the number of Dow points saved should outweigh the total suffering caused by the stack of dead American bodies and shuttered businesses or Trump's policy is an abject failure.

Difficult policy decisions demand tough, realistic calculations. We hired Trump to do the hard work of governing, and we need to be assured he didn't slough off this decision in the false hope the pandemic would simply peter out because he was afraid it would upset his re-election campaign strategy.

More Plague Thoughts — More Political This Time

I posted the following thread on Twitter a couple of days ago.

Ok. Hold onto your collective hats. It’s time for some (conspiracy) game theory. In a very memorable phrase, Trump’s campaign manager Parscale recently declared that his ‘Death Star’ campaign was about to launch on all platforms. 1/10

The next day, a massive disinformation conspiracy theory video appears on Facebook filled with a mixture of misinformation, disinformation, and partial or slanted truth-or truthiness. Pl@ndemic. Millions of instantaneous views & shares. 2/10

This is a rather obvious piece of propaganda intended to confuse people, poison the dialogue, and create and play on people’s fear and doubt about the authority of using a scientific approach to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. 3/10

It was shocking how fast it “went viral.” And of course there was further PR complaining about how the media is attempting to squelch the truth. Which only propagated it more. But that’s not all. 4/10

Today it was announced that Trump’s valet tested positive for coronavirus, and in a memorable phrase Trump was lava level angry. It was this phrasing that jumped out at me. It sounds contrived. What does it matter what Trump is feeling? 5/10

Shouldn’t we be concerned about what he’s NOT been doing to protect the country? This feels like another distraction tactic to take the heat off of him for his negligence and reckless indifference and utter incompetence in dealing with this problem. 6/10

Now the speculation: Let’s say it’s not true, or only partially true—the valet has a common cold. But what if the campaign sequesters Trump for a couple weeks or so (a la Kim Jong-Un)? 7/10

Rumors spread that Trump has the virus. Everybody wants to know. Does he have it? Is he going to die? Nobody says anything. Then all of a sudden, he reappears (again like Kim). And the whisper campaign begins about how he beat the invisible enemy. 8/10

He’s a superman. He’s a God. It’s a miracle. God wants him to rule four more years, otherwise a lesser man would have succumbed. It’s campaign gold, I tell ya. 9/10

So, is this another move in the Death Star campaign. I wouldn’t put it past them. Watch this space! 10/10

PS. Yes, I’ m cynical, but not half as cyncical as this Trump campaign. Also a reminder: I craft narratives (create fiction) daily.

Random Plague Thoughts (Mostly Non-Political)

• COVID-19, the Novel Coronavirus is NOT the Zombie Apocalypse.
• But it's like nothing any of us alive have ever experienced.
• The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 is our only global model precedent.
• Though we have the experiences of China, S. Korea, and Italy to go by.
• And these are so recent, their findings are hard to digest.
• That flu was more deadly but not nearly as contagious.
• One of the truly pernicious features of COVID-19 is the way it's spread:
• If someone sneezes on me at the grocery story on a normal Tuesday...
• I know I will come down with cold symptoms by the weekend.
• With this virus, I might not show any symptoms for up to TWO WEEKS!
• And all that time, I am infectious to everyone I come into contact with.
• Unbeknownst to me or them!
• The economic consequences of this current pandemic are going to be dire:
• Q1 earnings/unemployment will only tell part of the story: ~three weeks of devastation.
• Q2 will be devastating globally because the economic stoppage will be for the entire period.
• GLOBAL RECESSION!!!
• Depression. Economic Armageddon.
• The death of Neo-liberalism and Global Capitalism.
• The rise of Socialism.
• The implementation of Nationalist Isolationism and Military Dictatorships.
• The suspension of democratic elections and even Constitutions.
• None of the above. All of the above.
• Who knows?
• I certainly don't. And neither do you.
• And that's the point: we are all dealing in uncertainties and unknowns.
• One question to ponder though: Are the stock markets pricing these potential risks in now? (We'll come back to that.)
• Still, there are some things we can speculate about reasonably.
• China, e.g., is already starting to see the first signs of economic recovery—even in Wuhan.
• Due primarily to early efforts at containment and isolation.
• AND MASS TESTING.
• Only with broad testing are we able to determine how widespread the contagion is.
• Frankly, the U.S. has no idea how bad it is here because we have so little testing...
• Even for our front-line medical personnel.
• China's economy is, however, manufacturing based.
• Ours is more a service economy.
• China, thus, may not be a good model.
• Because you can isolate people on a factory floor but not, say, in a restaurant or at a show.
• There may be some validity to the notion that the virus will dwindle by summer.
• Summer colds suck but are not nearly as prevalent as winter colds.
• Social distancing, isolation, and quarantining are key factors in stopping the spread now.
• And we should all be observing them assiduously.
• Probably at least through May or June.
• But these measures also bring certain risks:
• Chief among the risks: Fewer people are exposed to the virus.
• Thus fewer develop immunities to it and remain vulnerable to exposure and infection.
• If—IF—we see a dwindling of the virus and hints of an economic recovery by summer...
• Many feel the economy and global equity markets will start to recover.
• And social distancing, etc. (sports, concerts, bars, restaurants, etc.) may dwindle as well.
• Folks will likely relax their precautions.
• But there will not be a vaccination ready by that time.
• And this is the problem.

• Now, back to the Spanish Flu precedent (remember that?):
• It, too, dwindled over the warmer months of 1918.
• But came back with an even more virulent vengeance the next October.
• And most of the deaths occurred over THAT winter stretching into 1919.

• Yet, CDC is on the case.
• People we know personally here in Atlanta who normally work on things like HIV/AIDS, cholera, ebola, flu, etc., have been reassigned.
• It's all hands on deck for COVID-19.
• This is a good thing. A very good thing.
• But no matter how hard they work, a vaccine will not be ready for at least another year, if not longer.
• This is a fact of life about vaccine trials: THEY TAKE TIME!
• Both to check their effectiveness against the virus, and
• Their dangers.
• Next fall, if the Spanish Flu is any guide, could see a disastrous SECOND WAVE of the outbreak!
• Unless, of course, some sort of therapy is developed.
• There is some happy talk now from Trump about hydroxychloroquine, a malarial drug.
• There is some evidence it can be repurposed to ease the effects of the coronavirus.
• This evidence, however, is inconclusive...
• And must likewise be investigated. Again, THIS TAKES TIME!
• Again, CDC does not have any evidence at the present time that Chloroquine can mitigate the symptoms of COVID-19, say like Tamiflu does for the flu.
• The point being: if we see a relaxing of the distancing precautions in the summer due to a belief that the virus is defeated, we may see a dramatic increase in cases next fall.
• Remember, it is VERY contagious.
• And, there being no vaccine, this could devastate the global economy even further.
• And that includes the stock markets as well—IN A BIG WAY!
• Meaning: a second major dip in the stock markets, another devastating hit to a recovering economy.
• Bottom line: Don't sleep on this thing!
• Don't get over-confident.
• We are in this for the long haul.
• At least until an effective vaccine is developed...
• Or a proven therapy or even a cure is developed.
• Then, and only then, will we have to deal with the idiot anti-vaxxers.
• But at least they will have seen what a vaccine-less world looks like.