20 March 2020

Random Plague Thoughts (Mostly Non-Political)

  • COVID-19, the Novel Coronavirus is NOT the Zombie Apocalypse.
  • But it's like nothing any of us alive have ever experienced.
    • The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 is our only global model precedent.
      • Though we have the experiences of China, S. Korea, and Italy to go by.
      • And these are so recent, their findings are hard to digest.
    • That flu was more deadly but not nearly as contagious.
  • One of the truly pernicious features of COVID-19 is the way it's spread:
    • If someone sneezes on me at the grocery story on a normal Tuesday...
      • I know I will come down with cold symptoms by the weekend.
    • With this virus, I might not show any symptoms for up to TWO WEEKS!
    • And all that time, I am infectious to everyone I come into contact with.
      • Unbeknownst to me or them!
  • The economic consequences of this current pandemic are going to be dire:
    • Q1 earnings/unemployment will only tell part of the story: ~three weeks of devastation.
    • Q2 will be devastating globally because the economic stoppage will be for the entire period.
      • GLOBAL RECESSION!!!
      • Depression. Economic Armageddon.
      • The death of Neo-liberalism and Global Capitalism.
      • The rise of Socialism.
      • The implementation of Nationalist Isolationism and Military Dictatorships.
      • The suspension of democratic elections and even Constitutions.
      • None of the above. All of the above.
      • Who knows?
        • I certainly don't. And neither do you.
        • And that's the point: we are all dealing in uncertainties and unknowns.
        • One question to ponder though: Are the stock markets pricing these potential risks in now? (We'll come back to that.)
      • Still, there are some things we can speculate about reasonably.
  • China, e.g., is already starting to see the first signs of economic recovery—even in Wuhan.
    • Due primarily to early efforts at containment and isolation.
      • AND MASS TESTING.
      • Only with broad testing are we able to determine how widespread the contagion is.
        • Frankly, the U.S. has no idea how bad it is here because we have so little testing...
          • Even for our front-line medical personnel.
    • China's economy is, however, manufacturing based.
      • Ours is more a service economy.
      • China, thus, may not be a good model.
        • Because you can isolate people on a factory floor but not, say, in a restaurant or at a show.
  • There may be some validity to the notion that the virus will dwindle by summer.
    • Summer colds suck but are not nearly as prevalent as winter colds.
  • Social distancing, isolation, and quarantining are key factors in stopping the spread now.
    • And we should all be observing them assiduously.
      • Probably at least through May or June.
    • But these measures also bring certain risks:
      • Chief among the risks: Fewer people are exposed to the virus.
      • Thus fewer develop immunities to it and remain vulnerable to exposure and infection.
  • If—IF—we see a dwindling of the virus and hints of an economic recovery by summer...
    • Many feel the economy and global equity markets will start to recover.
    • And social distancing, etc. (sports, concerts, bars, restaurants, etc.) may dwindle as well.
      • Folks will likely relax their precautions.
    • But there will not be a vaccination ready by that time.
      • And this is the problem.
  • Now, back to the Spanish Flu precedent (remember that?):
    • It, too, dwindled over the warmer months of 1918.
    • But came back with an even more virulent vengeance the next October.
      • And most of the deaths occurred over THAT winter stretching into 1919.
  • Yet, CDC is on the case.
    • People we know personally here in Atlanta who normally work on things like HIV/AIDS, cholera, ebola, flu, etc., have been reassigned.
      • It's all hands on deck for COVID-19.
        • This is a good thing. A very good thing.
  • But no matter how hard they work, a vaccine will not be ready for at least another year, if not longer.
    • This is a fact of life about vaccine trials: THEY TAKE TIME!
      • Both to check their effectiveness against the virus, and
      • Their dangers.
    • Next fall, if the Spanish Flu is any guide, could see a disastrous SECOND WAVE of the outbreak!
      • Unless, of course, some sort of therapy is developed.
    • There is some happy talk now from Trump about hydroxychloroquine, a malarial drug.
      • There is some evidence it can be repurposed to ease the effects of the coronavirus.
        • This evidence, however, is inconclusive...
        • And must likewise be investigated. Again, THIS TAKES TIME!
    • Again, CDC does not have any evidence at the present time that Chloroquine can mitigate the symptoms of COVID-19, say like Tamiflu does for the flu.
  • The point being: if we see a relaxing of the distancing precautions in the summer due to a belief that the virus is defeated, we may see a dramatic increase in cases next fall.
    • Remember, it is VERY contagious.
    • And, there being no vaccine, this could devastate the global economy even further.
      • And that includes the stock markets as well—IN A BIG WAY!
      • Meaning: a second major dip in the stock markets, another devastating hit to a recovering economy.
  • Bottom line: Don't sleep on this thing!
    • Don't get over-confident.
    • We are in this for the long haul.
      • At least until an effective vaccine is developed...
      • Or a proven therapy or even a cure is developed.
        • Then, and only then, will we have to deal with the idiot anti-vaxxers.
        • But at least they will have seen what a vaccine-less world looks like.

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