Random Plague Thoughts (Mostly Non-Political)

• COVID-19, the Novel Coronavirus is NOT the Zombie Apocalypse.
• But it's like nothing any of us alive have ever experienced.
• The Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 is our only global model precedent.
• Though we have the experiences of China, S. Korea, and Italy to go by.
• And these are so recent, their findings are hard to digest.
• That flu was more deadly but not nearly as contagious.
• One of the truly pernicious features of COVID-19 is the way it's spread:
• If someone sneezes on me at the grocery story on a normal Tuesday...
• I know I will come down with cold symptoms by the weekend.
• With this virus, I might not show any symptoms for up to TWO WEEKS!
• And all that time, I am infectious to everyone I come into contact with.
• Unbeknownst to me or them!
• The economic consequences of this current pandemic are going to be dire:
• Q1 earnings/unemployment will only tell part of the story: ~three weeks of devastation.
• Q2 will be devastating globally because the economic stoppage will be for the entire period.
• GLOBAL RECESSION!!!
• Depression. Economic Armageddon.
• The death of Neo-liberalism and Global Capitalism.
• The rise of Socialism.
• The implementation of Nationalist Isolationism and Military Dictatorships.
• The suspension of democratic elections and even Constitutions.
• None of the above. All of the above.
• Who knows?
• I certainly don't. And neither do you.
• And that's the point: we are all dealing in uncertainties and unknowns.
• One question to ponder though: Are the stock markets pricing these potential risks in now? (We'll come back to that.)
• Still, there are some things we can speculate about reasonably.
• China, e.g., is already starting to see the first signs of economic recovery—even in Wuhan.
• Due primarily to early efforts at containment and isolation.
• AND MASS TESTING.
• Only with broad testing are we able to determine how widespread the contagion is.
• Frankly, the U.S. has no idea how bad it is here because we have so little testing...
• Even for our front-line medical personnel.
• China's economy is, however, manufacturing based.
• Ours is more a service economy.
• China, thus, may not be a good model.
• Because you can isolate people on a factory floor but not, say, in a restaurant or at a show.
• There may be some validity to the notion that the virus will dwindle by summer.
• Summer colds suck but are not nearly as prevalent as winter colds.
• Social distancing, isolation, and quarantining are key factors in stopping the spread now.
• And we should all be observing them assiduously.
• Probably at least through May or June.
• But these measures also bring certain risks:
• Chief among the risks: Fewer people are exposed to the virus.
• Thus fewer develop immunities to it and remain vulnerable to exposure and infection.
• If—IF—we see a dwindling of the virus and hints of an economic recovery by summer...
• Many feel the economy and global equity markets will start to recover.
• And social distancing, etc. (sports, concerts, bars, restaurants, etc.) may dwindle as well.
• Folks will likely relax their precautions.
• But there will not be a vaccination ready by that time.
• And this is the problem.

• Now, back to the Spanish Flu precedent (remember that?):
• It, too, dwindled over the warmer months of 1918.
• But came back with an even more virulent vengeance the next October.
• And most of the deaths occurred over THAT winter stretching into 1919.

• Yet, CDC is on the case.
• People we know personally here in Atlanta who normally work on things like HIV/AIDS, cholera, ebola, flu, etc., have been reassigned.
• It's all hands on deck for COVID-19.
• This is a good thing. A very good thing.
• But no matter how hard they work, a vaccine will not be ready for at least another year, if not longer.
• This is a fact of life about vaccine trials: THEY TAKE TIME!
• Both to check their effectiveness against the virus, and
• Their dangers.
• Next fall, if the Spanish Flu is any guide, could see a disastrous SECOND WAVE of the outbreak!
• Unless, of course, some sort of therapy is developed.
• There is some happy talk now from Trump about hydroxychloroquine, a malarial drug.
• There is some evidence it can be repurposed to ease the effects of the coronavirus.
• This evidence, however, is inconclusive...
• And must likewise be investigated. Again, THIS TAKES TIME!
• Again, CDC does not have any evidence at the present time that Chloroquine can mitigate the symptoms of COVID-19, say like Tamiflu does for the flu.
• The point being: if we see a relaxing of the distancing precautions in the summer due to a belief that the virus is defeated, we may see a dramatic increase in cases next fall.
• Remember, it is VERY contagious.
• And, there being no vaccine, this could devastate the global economy even further.
• And that includes the stock markets as well—IN A BIG WAY!
• Meaning: a second major dip in the stock markets, another devastating hit to a recovering economy.
• Bottom line: Don't sleep on this thing!
• Don't get over-confident.
• We are in this for the long haul.
• At least until an effective vaccine is developed...
• Or a proven therapy or even a cure is developed.
• Then, and only then, will we have to deal with the idiot anti-vaxxers.
• But at least they will have seen what a vaccine-less world looks like.